Sunday, June 12, 2016

What if Trump Doesn’t Get a “Terrorist Attack Bump?”

Following the San Bernardino terrorist attacks, Donald Trump and his “America First” concept of nationalism received a solid bump in the polls. At least one of his opponents, Rand Paul, was pushed further down as a result. He’s expected to receive a similar bump following the Orlando terrorist attack, but what if he doesn’t?

Is it conceivable that those who would support Trump because of his hardline stance against Islam in general are already maxed? He’ll almost certainly get a lift from those who focus on radical Islamic terrorism, but he might actually lose some Independent support from those who favor gun control and who sympathize with the LGBTQ movement.

Have we reached “peak Trump?”

This is going to be a telling week for the election. No, it’s not definitive; with so many possible scandals combined with faux-pas-Trumpisms and the potential for a Clinton indictment, nothing is certain. However, in a bubble, this should be a springboard moment for Trump following a week that showed him falling far behind Clinton.

Polls today are meaningless other than the movement of the numbers based upon events. The Orlando terrorist attack was a major event that should help Trump. The question is whether or not he’ll get a big lift or a minor one. If he only gets a minor lift, we could truly be seeing the maximum that the presumptive GOP nominee can achieve in the best of circumstances.

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