Friday, March 11, 2016

Only Ted Cruz can Beat Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

There seems to be a lot of confusion still floating around the Republican party. It surrounds the questions of how to beat Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. At this stage, there’s only one viable solution: voting for Ted Cruz. A vote for any other candidate is a vote for Trump and therefore a vote for Clinton.

Much of the confusion surrounds the likelihood of a contested convention. Unless John Kasich and Marco Rubio drop out on Wednesday and endorse Ted Cruz after winning their states, there is going to be a contested convention. However, the notion that a contested convention would yield anyone other than Trump or Cruz as the nominee is a falsehood. The Republican Establishment is powerful and the different factions are still deciding who is the lesser of their two evils, but they won’t alienate their base and fracture the party irreparably by pushing Rubio, Kasich, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or whoever their chosen savior is at the time. In a contested convention, Trump or Cruz is still the nominee.

To prevent the destruction of the party and the coronation of Hillary Clinton as President, there’s only one realistic solution. Cruz must either win the nomination outright (yes, it’s still very possible) or he must end up with the same or more delegates at the convention. For this to be possible, voters and even those reluctant power brokers in the party must realize two important truths: only Cruz can beat Trump and therefore only Cruz can defeat Clinton.

Only Cruz can Defeat Trump

The math is easy. Cruz is within striking distance of Trump in delegates. That’s fine and still favors Trump, but there’s a catch. In head-to-head polls, Cruz crushes Trump. When Rubio and Kasich drop out, the majority of their support goes to Cruz. That will shift the remainder of the primary races heavily in Cruz’s favor and would give him either the lead or an outright nomination victory by the time the convention rolls around.

Cruz One on One with Trump

The key to this is Rubio and Kasich dropping out soon. There’s evidence that an arrangement has already been struck. Could it mean that one of them will be the Vice President and the other will be the Secretary of State, similar to the deals Barack Obama cut in 2008?

For voters, it comes down to one thing: vote Cruz or Trump. Voting for either Kasich or Rubio outside of Ohio and Florida is a vote for Trump, period. They cannot mount enough delegates to overtake the frontrunners. They won’t be gifted the nomination at a contested convention.

If they drop out and their supporters generally go to Cruz whether as their second choice or as their not-Trump choice, Cruz will get what he needs to be the nominee.

Anyone But Trump Would Defeat Clinton

When pundits were saying in June and July that Trump was a joke, I was skeptical. By August, I was completely convinced that nearly every “expert” was absolutely wrong about Trump fading away. It wasn’t prescience or insight but rather a gut feeling that told me Trump was going to stay in and had a chance of pulling it off. That gut feeling that told me he could win the nomination is the same gut feeling (this time backed up by facts) that tells me he would be utterly obliterated by the media in the weeks leading up to the general election if he gets the nomination. They’ve taken it easy on him so far by not diving into investigative reports (as they’ve done with every GOP nominee since Richard Nixon), but if he locks up the nomination, they’ll unleash hell.

Currently, Trump is the only candidate that generally loses to Clinton. Every other candidate defeats her in the vast majority of the last couple of months of polling. Trump hasn’t been close in a while and is losing ground with every new poll:

Trump vs Clinton Head-to-Head

Cruz, on the other hand, has been surging against her and recently overtook her:

Cruz vs Clinton Head-to-Head

Overconfidence hurt Republicans in 2012 when a decent GOP candidate, Mitt Romney, should have easily defeated Barack Obama. That mistake won’t happen this year because with the stakes as high as they are, it’s completely unfathomable that any GOP candidate other than Trump and possibly Chris Christie could fail to defeat Hillary Clinton. While there’s still a chance that Bernie Sanders could beat her, it seems as if the Democratic Establishment made up their minds long ago.

Republicans MUST Choose One or the Other

There are two choices in the nomination race. Assuming that the Republican Establishment will get their wish for a contested convention, it’s still almost certain that they would nominate one of the two frontrunners. If it’s not close, the leader would likely win. If it’s close, then it’s all up to the power brokers within the party. Either way, Cruz or Trump will be the nominee.

At this point, a vote for John Kasich or Marco Rubio (outside of their home states) would be a vote for Trump. His base is strong, but it’s smaller than most realize. Assuming he can get 35%-40% of the vote, we know that there are enough people against him to be able to defeat him if the votes are unified behind Cruz. Votes for either of the two other candidates will do nothing but prevent Cruz from beating Trump.

If you read the rhetoric and untruthful memes posted by Trump supporters on social media, you might get discouraged. If you look at the facts, it’s clear that the path for a Cruz nomination and Presidency is realistic as long as discerning Republicans vote against Hillary Clinton. That vote in the primary is manifested in one man: Ted Cruz.

via Soshable

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