As usual, everyone in the media is focused on the February primaries. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will play a big role in shaping the race for the GOP nomination because it’s the time for candidates to build momentum in the press and funds in the coffers in preparation for March 1. It will be the last day for some of the campaigns that do not perform well.
In the past, Texas has been an important state by size but being so late in the primary cycle (May 29 in 2012) the case was almost always decided before the second biggest state in the country had its say. Next year, it’s intermixed with the first Super Tuesday contests. This is why Ted Cruz is so well positioned to win the nomination. As long as he can fair well in the first four primaries, he will be able to pick up the most delegates and take the lead starting in March.
One of the keys will be how the other Texas favorites – Rand Paul and Jeb Bush – do in the early primaries. Paul’s campaign is already on “deathwatch” and is in jeopardy of not qualifying for the main stage at the coming CNBC debate.
Rand Paul is teetering on the edge of the primetime debate, according to new CNBC qualification criteria: http://t.co/JPdB4qKaMl
— Rebecca Ballhaus (@rebeccaballhaus) September 30, 2015
As for Bush, his current problem with dropping poll numbers is minor. He could definitely be the player that pulls in the moderate Republican voters. The question is whether or not he will resonate in the south well enough to overcome his bigger competitor – Donald Trump. That particular wild card is impossible to predict at this point. The closer we get to the primaries, the better the picture will be.
Other than Texas and its 155 delegates, there are other southern states up for grabs that could go to Cruz if he has the momentum built up in the South Carolina and Nevada primaries. He won’t have to win. He simply has to place well enough to make a statement and infuse fundraising. His focus will be to hit the airwaves, grassroots, and social media targeting Texas, Alabama (50 delegates), Arkansas (40), Georgia (76), Oklahoma (43), and Tennessee (58).
The final factor in the equation will be the other three major contenders: Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. While they aren’t the wildcards that Trump represents, they still must fair well in the February primaries to be alive and well for Super Tuesday. Carson has the best chance of taking from Cruz in the southern states.
Speculation this early in the race is always futile, but it’s important for voters to understand the potential future landscape based upon a primary attack strategy rather than relying on flawed polls and media-manipulated buzz. The path to the nomination is much more complicated than a sound bite.
The post The Unfair Advantage for Cruz is March 1: The Texas and Southern Primaries appeared first on Conservative Haven.
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