There are three types of people in America. The ironic part is that the smallest group is the one that is by far the most vocal.
Those three groups are:
- Those who stay up on politics, learn about the candidates, and often make their opinions known (whether we want to hear them or not)
- Headline-readers who are familiar with the hot topics and people but who only occasionally dig deeper into them. As the primaries and/or general elections approach, many of them beef up on their knowledge.
- Apolitical folks. Some may shift to category two around voting time. Most do not.
The first group is the most vocal. They are the journalists, the pundits, and the interested parties who have a vested interest in the elections. They are also the informed citizens, many of which learn but keep their opinions to themselves. Then, there is the growing ranks of informed citizens who use the power of the internet and/or the watercooler to spread their perspectives to those who will listen.
Polls, especially this early, tend to get more of category two and three in their list of the statistically significant threshold of 1000+ opinions. That’s why the most important poll numbers aren’t the percentage of people likely to vote for a particular candidate. It’s not the favorable versus unfavorable comparison, either. The most important poll number until a few weeks prior to the primaries is the “Never heard of” percentage.
This is why Rudy Giuliani had a huge lead in September, 2007. It’s why Hillary Clinton was virtually unchallenged until enough people started talking about Bernie Sanders. It’s why she’ll almost certainly lose if Joe Biden or another known Democrat enters the race.
It’s why Donald Trump has such a large lead today.
In the most recent CNN/ORCint poll, Jeb Bush was the only other candidate with single-digit “Never Heard of” numbers with 7%. All but three of the candidates were in the 20%-40% range in this category, with Mike Huckabee being on the edge with 19%.
Scott Walker, who just left the race, showed a 35% “Never heard of” percentage, second only to John Kasich at the bottom.
In a field as large as the one we currently have, it’s easy to understand how so many people know so little about many of the candidates. Despite a strong debate performance and a bunch of buzz on national media ever since, Carly Fiorina still has 30% claiming that they’ve never heard of her. This will change the closer we get to the primaries. It will change when more candidates drop out. It will change as more people get interested.
One final note on the inaccuracy of polls: they’re done by phone. This worked years ago. Today, the people who are answering their phone and willing to take a survey are not representative of the general population. Do you have time to take a random telemarketer call that lasts several minutes?
Today and until January, name recognition is the biggest influencing factor in polls. It shouldn’t be a surprise that only 1% of registered voters have never heard of Trump. The only real surprise is that so many think the polls actually mean something this early in the race.
The post The Most Important Number in September Polls (and why Donald Trump is winning) appeared first on Conservative Haven.
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