The mainstream media and even a handful of conservative media types are starting to spread the narrative that the Republican nominee will be Donald Trump but that Marco Rubio is the one who can stop him. This is by far the most ludicrous notion, so much so that I question the judgment of a handful of people I respect. Rubio has neither the math nor the path to defeat Trump. Ted Cruz is the only GOP candidate with a chance.
As many have speculated, it may be too late if there’s not a major shakeup before the “SEC Primaries” coming up on March 1. By major shakeup, I’m not referring to the obvious need for Ben Carson and John Kasich to drop out. I mean that everyone other than Trump and Cruz need to drop out. Some are saying that it’s Rubio who should be going head-to-head, but even that doesn’t make any sense if you look at the facts logically:
- If all but Cruz drop out, the majority of the orphan supporters will rally around Cruz, giving him the voter advantage over Trump.
- If all but Rubio drop out, Kasich’s supporters would favor Rubio but Cruz’s and Carson’s supporters would be split with Trump, allowing him to maintain a voter advantage over Rubio.
- In the states where Cruz is ahead of Rubio in the upcoming Super Tuesday, he is either beating Trump or within striking distance.
- In the states where Rubio is ahead of Cruz in the upcoming Super Tuesday, Trump has a huge lead. Rubio doesn’t lead in a single state.
- Cruz represents a start conservative contrast to Trump on most issues other than immigration. Rubio represents a similar ideology with Trump other than immigration.
In other election years, it would be reversed. Texas is normally much later in the cycle and Florida is earlier. It’s reversed this year, giving Cruz the proper path to beating Trump. Even if everyone drops out and if Cruz were to join with Rubio as his running mate, it would be challenging for the Gang of Eight Senator to lead the ticket and pick up states. In fact, there’s a very good chance that he could emerge be competing on March 2nd having lost fifteen consecutive contests without a single win.
If the anti-Trump vote coalesces around Cruz, he will win the nomination. If it attempts to coalesce around Rubio, the best they can hope for is a brokered convention which would splinter the party and guarantee a Democratic general election victory regardless of the nominee on either side.
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